Predicting flood insurance claims with hydrologic and socioeconomic demographics via machine learning: exploring the roles of topography, minority populations, and political dissimilarity

Current research on flooding risk often focuses on understanding hazards, de-emphasizing the complex pathways of exposure and vulnerability. We investigated the use of both hydrologic and social demographic data for flood exposure mapping with Random Forest (RF) regression and classification algorithms trained to predict both parcel- and tract-level flood insurance claims within New York State, US. Topographic characteristics best described flood claim frequency, but RF prediction skill was improved at both spatial scales when socioeconomic data was incorporated. Substantial improvements occurred at the tract-level when the percentage of minority residents, housing stock value and age, and the political dissimilarity index of voting precincts were used to predict insurance claims. Census tracts with higher numbers of claims and greater densities of low-lying tax parcels tended to have low proportions of minority residents, newer houses, and less political similarity to state level government. We compared this data-driven approach and a physically-based pluvial flood routing model for prediction of the spatial extents of flooding claims in two nearby catchments of differing land use. The floodplain we defined with physically based modeling agreed well with existing federal flood insurance rate maps, but underestimated the spatial extents of historical claim generating areas. In contrast, RF classification incorporating hydrologic and socioeconomic demographic data likely overestimated the flood-exposed areas. Our research indicates that quantitative incorporation of social data can improve flooding exposure estimates

Status of Biodiversity in the Baltic Sea

The brackish Baltic Sea hosts species of various origins and environmental tolerances. These immigrated to the sea 10,000 to 15,000 years ago or have been introduced to the area over the relatively recent history of the system. The Baltic Sea has only one known endemic species. While information on some abiotic parameters extends back as long as five centuries and first quantitative snapshot data on biota (on exploited fish populations) originate generally from the same time, international coordination of research began in the early twentieth century. Continuous, annual Baltic Sea-wide long-term datasets on several organism groups (plankton, benthos, fish) are generally available since the mid-1950s. Based on a variety of available data sources (published papers, reports, grey literature, unpublished data), the Baltic Sea, incl. Kattegat, hosts altogether at least 6,065 species, including at least 1,700 phytoplankton, 442 phytobenthos, at least 1,199 zooplankton, at least 569 meiozoobenthos, 1,476 macrozoobenthos, at least 380 vertebrate parasites, about 200 fish, 3 seal, and 83 bird species. In general, but not in all organism groups, high sub-regional total species richness is associated with elevated salinity. Although in comparison with fully marine areas the Baltic Sea supports fewer species, several facets of the system's diversity remain underexplored to this day, such as micro-organisms, foraminiferans, meiobenthos and parasites. In the future, climate change and its interactions with multiple anthropogenic forcings are likely to have major impacts on the Baltic biodiversity

Bioindicators of Reductive Dechlorination in a Dehalococcoides ethenogenes-Containing Mixed Culture: Transcriptional Trends With Respect to Substrate Type, Substrate Concentration, and Culture Operation

Expression levels of potentially important gene transcripts were examined in a Dehalococcoides ethenogenes strain 195 (DET)-containing mixed culture (D2) capable of reductively dechlorinating tetrachloroethene (PCE) successively to trichloroethene (TCE), cis-1,2-dichloroethene (cDCE), vinyl chloride (VC), and non-toxic ethene using H2 as electron donor. Gene transcripts associated with general cell activity, including those corresponding to 16S rRNA and subunits of RNA polymerase (RpoB) and an ATP synthase, and also multiple reductive dehalogenase (RDase), hydrogenase (H2ase) and other oxidoreductase enzymes were selected for study as potential bioindicators of reductive dechlorination in DET. Quantitative reverse-transcriptase PCR (qRT-PCR) data on selected gene transcripts in batch PCE-fed microcosms indicated that a subset of targets, including RDases TceA, PceA, DET1559 and DET1545, the H2ase Hup, and a gene annotated as formate dehydrogenase (Fdh), were highly up-regulated within 1 to 12 h after PCE feeding. Transcription profiles over time suggested that genes belonging to similar functional groups were regulated in similar ways. Expression studies in cultures fed either electron donor or acceptor showed that neither PCE nor H2 alone was sufficient to signal up-regulation of chosen bioindicators. Experiments in microcosms continuously fed medium containing PCE showed that pseudo-steady-state mRNA levels were achieved and that increases in PCE loading rate led to corresponding increases in chloroethene respiration rate. Regulation of steady-state transcript levels of most bioindicators was sensitive to chloroethene respiration rate and/or concentration. Within a limited range of respiration rates (1.5 ? 4.8 ?mol/L/hr), Fdh, Hup, TceA, PceA and DET1559 transcript levels displayed positive correlation with respiration rate, and could be well-fit with linear regression models (R2 between 0.95 - 0.97). At high PCE respiration rates, however, most bioindicator levels reached a plateau or decreased, the reasons for which remain unknown. At very low PCE respiration rates, RDases DET1559 and DET1545 were the only potential bioindicators up-regulated above time-0 levels, suggesting they play key roles in reductive dechlorination when substrate concentrations are low. Fdh, Hup and TceA transcript abundances were also high in microcosms continuously fed medium containing TCE or cDCE. Experiments using these alternate electron acceptors indicated that while some RDase bioindicators could reflect substrate utilization, the H2ase Hup was a more accurate and sensitive indicator of cellular respiration rate

On-site Wastewater Management Programs: Case Studies

Used in 20-25% of homes in the United States, on-site wastewater treatment systems (OWTS) are widespread and can be an efficient and cost-effective alternative to conventional centralized systems if cared for properly. However, poor design and inconsistent maintenance can lead to system failure and negative impacts on nearby water resources. Unfortunately, no federal regulations or uniform standards for the operation and maintenance of these systems currently exist. As such, regional and local governments looking to ensure public health and water quality through system functionality are left to develop and implement management programs. Over the past decades, many municipalities and regional governments, along with the US Environ- mental Protection Agency (EPA), have worked to develop information and guidance on best man- agement and administrative practices with respect to OWTS. Management programs differ according to local regulations and legal structures, stakeholder needs and values, as well as other environ- mental, economic, and social factors. Regardless, learning from past management attempts can be a valuable step for municipalities looking to create their own management system. To help with this process, the Water Resources Institute created the following document containing a collection of case studies from around the US.This work was prepared for NYS WRI with support from the USDA National Institute of Food and Agriculture Smith-Lever project

Temporal Expression of Respiratory Genes in an Enrichment Culture Containing Dehalococcoides ethenogenes

Multiple reductive dehalogenase (RDase), hydrogenase (H(2)ase), and other respiration-associated (RA) oxidoreductase genes have been identified in cultured representatives of Dehalococcoides. Although their products are likely to play key roles in the environmentally important process of reductive dechlorination, very little information is available about their regulation and specific functions. Here we show increased expression and temporal variability in the expression of five RDase genes and in the expression of genes for a putative formate dehydrogenase (Fdh) and two H(2)ases, including a periplasmic [Ni/Fe] H(2)ase (Hup) and a cytoplasmic [Fe] H(2)ase (Vhu). mRNA transcripts extracted from tetrachloroethene-dechlorinating mixed cultures corresponding to Fdh, the H(2)ase Hup, and the RDase targets TceA and DET0162 were expressed most highly, with average levels 34 (± 7.5)-, 23 (± 6.7)-, 16 (± 3.3)-, and 13 (± 3.3)-fold higher, respectively, than that for RNA polymerase (RpoB). H(2)ase and RA transcripts reached their respective expression maxima within the first 2 h after feeding. RDase transcripts, however, were most highly expressed after 3 h and exhibited greater temporal variability than other transcripts. Comparison with D. ethenogenes strain 195 pure culture expression levels indicated that RDase DET1545 was more highly expressed in mixed cultures, where, on average, its transcript level was sixfold higher than that of RpoB. While the specific functions of several of these gene products remain elusive, the high expression levels and temporal variability reported here suggest that these groups of enzymes are metabolically important for the respiration of chlorinated ethenes in mixed cultures containing Dehalococcoides

Engaging Researchers and Stakeholders in Improving New York’s Water Management

CaRDI Research & Policy Brief Issue 6

Assessing dissolved methane patterns in central New York groundwater

Study region: Groundwater in Chenango County (central New York State, USA), which is underlain by Devonian sedimentary bedrock. This region has conventional natural gas wells and is under consideration for future shale gas development using high-volume hydraulic fracturing. Study focus: The study examines current patterns of dissolved methane in groundwater, based on 113 samples from homeowner wells in the spring of 2012. Samples were analyzed for methane and other water quality parameters, and each well characterized by its landscape position and geology. Statistical testing and regression modeling was used to identify the primary environmental drivers of observed methane patterns. New hydrological insights for this region: There was no significant difference between methane concentrations in valleys versus upslope locations, in water wells less than or greater than 1 km from a conventional gas well, and across different geohydrologic units. Methane concentrations were significantly higher in groundwater dominated by sodium chloride or sodium bicarbonate compared with groundwater dominated by calcium bicarbonate, indicating bedrock interactions and lengthy residence times as controls. A multivariate regression model of dissolved methane using only three variables (sodium, hardness, and barium) explained 77% of methane variability, further emphasizing the dominance of geochemistry and hydrogeology as controls on baseline methane patterns

Molecular characterization of microbial populations at two sites with differing reductive dechlorination abilities. Biodegradation 17:523–534

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